The Beauty Affair

I found a terrific beauty salon today and thought I'd tell you about it. In Pauma Valley beside the Post Office and across from Pauma Valley Country Club, my friend, Brenda Kline owns and operates The Beauty Affair, a full service salon for men and women.

Not only are Brenda's prices reasonable, but her talent is tremendous and she is meticulous and detailed about her work. Time was definitely not the concern for her, but my satisfaction with the result absolutely was and I was thrilled with my color, the highlights that she suggested and a brand new cut. Not only was I very happy with my hair, but the time I spent in her shop was relaxed and pleasant in way that you won't find in the big city. I chatted with other customers and Brenda's very polite and well-spoken 11 year old son, Cole, who told me all about his golfing aspirations. Apparently he's quite the player.

Brenda has been a stylist for 23 years, so her success is no accident. If you're looking for a stylist who takes her time and puts service and your satisfaction first, please visit Brenda Kline at The Beauty Affair. The address is 16160 Highway 76, Suite 303 in Pauma Valley or you can call her at 760.742.3233.

I love home improvement

This just in from Lowe's. I love home improvement newsletters, because they provide step-by-step instructions that even I can follow and I am so very motivated after reading them. See you in the garden this Saturday!

1. Rake, rattle and roll! Convince yourself that raking leaves can be fun. Rather than wait for a single weekend, break this chore into stages. Matted leaves can lead to insect and disease problems and smother your turf, especially cool season grasses like
Kentucky Bluegrass.

2. To fertilize – or not to fertilize? Cool season grasses like Kentucky
Bluegrass, fescues and perennial ryegrass often need fertilizer this time of year. Grasses that go dormant in the winter, such as Bermuda, Zoysia and Centipede
may not.

3. Repair and re-seed. Fall is a great time to repair a damaged lawn and re-seed. Fill any holes or bare spots with topsoil and add grass seed. It’s important to choose the right kind of grass for your growing zone.

4. Remember to water. New grass in particular needs frequent but shallow watering. Once the grass is established, water deeply to reach the roots. To minimize the threat of fungal disease,
water in the morning or early afternoon so that the grass blades are not moist
overnight.

5. Prune with care. Pruning promotes growth, so be careful not to encourage growth when plants are about to go dormant. By all means remove diseased, dead or broken branches.

6. Transplant trees and shrubs. Autumn is a great season for transplanting trees and shrubs, allowing roots to get established before the cold sets in. Also, heat stress is not a concern.

7. Spruce up flower beds. Replace warm-weather annuals with
seasonal favorites like pansies and mums. Clean out summer perennials and add a fresh layer of mulch, which can help protect plants from hard freezes.

8. Divide established perennials. If your perennials are looking a bit lackluster or overgrown they may need to be divided. The best candidates have large, healthy clumps and have been in
the ground for years. By dividing these in the fall, you’ll enjoy healthier plants in more
places next spring.

9. Plant ahead for spring. Foolproof and fabulous, spring-flowering bulbs put gardening within everyone’s reach. When choosing bulbs, focus on your favorite color, or try shades that accent
already established plantings throughout your garden.

Delinquencies, notices of default and foreclosures. It's not what you think

The Mortgage Bankers Association and the Federal Reserve gave us some information lately that belies the impending doom projected in the media. Here is some information contained in the reports:

1. The delinquency rate on sub-prime loans was running at 13.77%, which is up 13.44% from the previous year. In the last quarter, the delinquency rate dropped to 12.4%!

2. The delinquency rate on Alt-A loans is only 2.69%, while prime loans are at 2.57%

3. Combining the three rates with the loan volume gives you a delinquency rate for all loans in the US of only 4.84%! All of the US!

4. On jumbo mortgages, (anything over $417,000,) the delinquency rate is 0/37%

5. California delinquency rate is only 3.25%!

6. Only 3.23% of all sub-prime loans have entered the foreclosure process with most of the defaults occurring on loans from January, 2005 to June, 2006

7. Only 1.28% of all prime loans have entered the foreclosure process

8. For prime loans, the foreclosure rate is 0.86%. Last year, the US saw a combined foreclosure rate of only 1.09% while California's rate was 1.17%.

9. California now ranks #4 in the nation in foreclosures, which is down from #1!

The media will still report about massive delinquencies and huge foreclosures in the sub-prime market, but those reports will not be accurate because they don't explain the difference between a delinquent payment, a notice of default or a foreclosure. The tell us "foreclosures are at a record high!" but that's not accurate.

The media will try to scare you with number like $1 trillion in loans needs to be recast this year and that foreclosures could cost lenders as much as 2.3 billion dollars! They never mention that there is 10.4 trillion of mortgages with $56 trillion dollars of equity in American households. Add to that the wealth of the US at $70 trillion, with the value of stocks between $15 and $20 trillion, while the bond market is even larger. So these losses (should they occur) should not have any great effect on home prices.

Another note about foreclosures: The #1 reason they occurred was due to fraud. The #2 reason was unethical lending, followed by #3 - loss of job, and finally #4 was medical reasons. By the way, the mortgage insurers are in a good position to cover losses at these (high) levels.

Don't be fooled.

Inspections

There's a misconception out there, that real estate agents don't like "good" inspectors, because they'll find defects and "kill the deal". Well, we can tell you, from painful experience, we don't like deals to fall apart, but that doesn't mean we don't want our customer to hire an expert inspector. It's part of their due diligence, it's going to ultimately strengthen the deal, and furthermore, it's silly not to hire the best person for the job.

The fact of the matter is, finding out as many defects as you can will clarify the worth of the property, illuminate the cost of repairing any defects, and solidify the decision to purchase the property or move on. In reality, it's a very constructive process. Believe it or not, if the inspector does a slap-dash job, it doesn't really benefit anyone. The buyer won't know what he or she is really buying, and the seller won't know what condition the property really is. In short, it's a sort of quicksand, and we all know how stable that is.

Check your credit.

Get Three Free Credit Reports From
AnnualCreditReport.com
by Broderick Perkins

After a landmark overhaul of federal credit laws, there's still lots of work to be done, including getting more consumers to check their credit report.

One in three consumers have no idea what's on their credit report and that could cost them money and hurt their chances at landing a mortgage, insurance or a job.

This summer, a Federal Trade Commission (FTC) statement prepared for the U.S. House of Representatives' House Committee on Financial Services, said when the feds upgraded the Fair Credit Reporting Act (FCRA) with Fair and Accurate Credit Transactions Act (FACTA) provisions, the effort included 30 rules, guidelines, compliance forms, notices, educational
campaigns, studies, and reports.

One of the most extensive regulatory overhauls in history still leaves credit reports dinged with errors. Get your credit reports. Take a look. Clean them up.


Read the whole thing

JUNE

Facts about June

According to the Georgian calendar, which is used over most of the world today, June is the sixth month. On the Roman calendar, it was considered the fourth month and had only 29 days. Julius Ceasar gave the month 30 days in 46 B.C., when he reformed the Roman calendar.

Spring ends and summer begins around June 20, 21, or 22 in the Northern Hemisphere. It's the time that the flowers are beautiful. It is especially the month for roses. In the Southern hemisphere, winter begins during June, and it brings cold, rainy weather to this part of the world.

Flag Day is observed in the United States on June 14. It commemorates the day in 1777 when the Continental Congress adopted the Stars and Stripes as our flag. It then had only 13 stars, to match its 13 stripes.

It's not an official national holiday, but in Pennsylvania, it is a legal holiday. The President has proclaimed a public flag day observance every year. It was first observed to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the selection of the flag. President Harry S. Truman officially recognized June 14 as Flag Day by signing the National Flag Day Bill.

The Philippines' Independence Day is on June 12.

Sweden celebrates flag day, its national holiday, on June 6.

Finland's flag day is the Saturday closest to June 24.

The JUNE BUG also known as June beetle, is the name for several large beetles seen in the United States during May and June. They are usually seen at night, when the light attracts them.

Gems for June are the pearl, alexandrite, and moonstone.

The rose is the flower for the month of June.

Kentucky became the 15th state, June 1, 1792.

Tennessee became the 16th state, June 1, 1796.

John Randolph of Roanoke, American statesman, born June 2, 1773.

De Soto claimed Florida for Spain, June 3, 1539.

Jefferson Davis, president of the Confederate States of America during the Civil War, born June 3, 1808.

Secretary of State George C. Marshall described the Marshall Plan, June 5, 1947.

U.S. Senator Robert F. Kennedy shot by an assassin June 5, 1968. Died the following day, 1968.

Nathan Hale, American patriot, born June 6, 1755.

YMCA organized in London, June 6, 1844.

Cole Porter, American composer, born June 9, 1893.

Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh, born June 10, 1921.

George Bush, 41st President of the United States, born in Milton, Massachusetts, June 12, 1924.
Winfield Scott, American general, born June 13, 1786.

Continental Congress adopted the Flag of the United States, June 14, 1777.

Hawaii organized as a territory, June 14, 1900.

King John granted Magna Carta, June 15, 1215.

George Washington appointed commander in chief of the Continental Army, June 15, 1775.
Arkansas became the 25th state, June 15, 1836.

Charles Goodyear was granted a patent for rubber vulcanization, June 15, 1844.

Ford Motor Company founded, June 16, 1903.

Nancy Layne born June 16 (year to remain anonymous) in San Diego, California

Jacques Marquette and Louis Jolliet began exploring the Mississippi River, June 17, 1673.

Reclamation Act passed by Congress, June 17, 1902.

Charles Eames, American designer, born June 17, 1907.

John Hersey, American novelist, born June 17, 1914.

Burglary of Democratic Party headquarters in Washington, D.C., touched off Watergate political scandal, June 17, 1972.

United States declared war on Great Britain, June 18, 1812.

Congress adopted the design for the Great Seal of the United States, June 20, 1782.

Eli Whitney applied for a patent on the cotton gin, June 20, 1793.

West Virginia became the 35th state, June 20, 1863.

President Andrew Johnson announced the purchase of Alaska from Russia, June 20, 1867.

Daniel Carter Beard, founder of Boy Scouts of America, born June 21, 1850.

New Hampshire ratified the Constitution, June 21, 1788.

Cyrus McCormick granted patent for reaper, June 21, 1834.

Rockwell Kent, American artist, born June 21, 1882.

Allied forces captured Okinawa during World War II, June 21, 1945.

American author Anne Morrow Lindbergh born June 22, 1906.

William Penn signed land treaty with Indians, June 23, 1683.

Taft-Hartley Act became law, June 23, 1947.

Chemist E. I. du Pont born June 24, 1771.

Sioux Indians massacred Lieutenant Colonel George Custer and his troops at the Little Bighorn, Montana, June 25, 1876.

Fair Labor Standards Act became law, June 25, 1938.

Virginia ratified the Constitution, June 25, 1788.

Pearl S. Buck, Nobel Prize-winning novelist, born June 26 1892.

United Nations Charter signed by delegates from 50 nations at San Francisco, June 26, 1945.

American poet Paul L. Dunbar born June 27, 1872.

Helen Keller, deaf and blind author and lecturer, born June 27, 1880.

George W. Goethals, American engineer who built the Panama Canal, born June 29, 1858.

William James Mayo, American surgeon who helped establish the Mayo Foundation, born June 29, 1861.

George Ellery Hale, American astronomer, born June 29, 1868.

Federal Food and Drugs Act of the United States became law, June 30, 1906.

Father's Day is coming fast!

End of school, summer plans, life ~ it's so busy this time of year.......but let's not forget Dad!





Here's some ideas to help bring a smile to his face.



Free, Printable, Custom Cards
http://www.dltk-cards.com/cc1.asp


Custom Coupons For Dad
http://www.dltk-cards.com/coupon/


Doorknob Hanger for His Office or Home
http://tlsbooks.com/doorhangerblank.htm


Business Card Holder
http://www.kidsdomain.com/craft/buscard.html


Lego Frame for the Kids Picture
http://www.kidsdomain.com/craft/legoframe1.html


Barbeque Gift Set from the Kids
http://www.amazingmoms.com/htm/fathersday4.htm


Keepsake Box
http://www.families-first.com/art/holm1.htm


Creative T-shirt Ideas
http://www.freekidcrafts.com/kid_fathers_day_craft_ideas.html


World’s Greatest Dad Certificate
http://www.kidsturncentral.com/holidays/fathers/fcert.htm


Trivia for Dad at Dinner or in the Car
http://www.kidsturncentral.com/games/trivia/trivia13.htm


Dessert on “the Grill” for Dad
http://www.womansday.com/article.asp?section_id=13&article_id=5617&page_number=1


Steak Dinner

http://www.womansday.com/article.asp?section_id=48&article_id=7840&page_number=1


Father’s Day Quotations
http://homepages.rootsweb.com/~homespun/fdquotes.html


7 Breakfast Ideas for Dad
http://www.garvick.com/annual/fathers_day/recipes/breakfasts.htm


Coloring Page for Kids
http://www.janbrett.com/happy_fathers_day_coloring.htm
http://www.janbrett.com/i_love_my_dad.htm
http://www.dltk-holidays.com/dad/color/index.htm
http://www.kidsdomain.com/holiday/dad/color.html


More Craft Ideas
http://www.dltk-holidays.com/dad/crafts.html

Buyer's Remorse?

Buyer's Remorse

In the excitement and business of life, you and your family decided that it’s time to move. The American dream passionately filled your heart as you sought out the perfect home that would complete your family’s happiness. There was the cozy cottage in the mountains, the open house by the beach, the new condo with little maintenance, the “too small” house, the “too large” house, and then…the “just right” home! After the long process, you finally settled.

When the emotions and chaos of trying to find the perfect house died down, your mind began to race once again. Did I make the right choice? Should we have moved into a different school district for the kids? Can I really afford this? What if I loose my job? This is all very normal.
The endless questions that race through your mind can be exhausting. Perhaps you are just being paranoid about the purchase made – the largest purchase you will likely ever make. So how do you deal with this remorse to determine if you really have something to fret about?

1. Check out the Neighbors
Once you buy a house, you will likely have to live there for at least a year or two before you can afford to move again. So don’t be shy about interacting with the neighbors before you get a contract. Introduce yourself and ask them questions about the neighborhood. What do they like about it? Is there anything they wish was different? Have there ever been issues in the neighborhood? How does everyone get along? Are there children around the ages of your children? See what the neighborhood is like during the day, at night, and on weekends. Are you near a school ? Then check out the local area. Visit nearby parks, shops, movie theaters, local schools, restaurants, and libraries. Try to visit each of those places during their busy times so that you can get a realistic picture of the community. How is the commute to your office?

2. Recheck the Floor Plan
At this point in the game, you’ve found a house and have fallen in love with the landscaping, the quaint porch, and the view from the kitchen. However, you need to keep a level head. Examine the floor plans once again. Remember that you will be spending the majority of your time inside the house. Are there enough bathrooms to accommodateyour family? Would you prefer a different layout in the kitchen? You need to make sure that the room sizes will meet your specific needs.

3. Get an Inspection
DO NOT SKIP THE INSPECTION
Picking an inspector can be tricky. Make sure that the inspector will cover the basis: appliances, roof, heating and air conditioning, general drainage, windows and doors, dampness, and structure. If you suspect a problem in the following areas, you may want to hire a specialist: electrical systems, mold, pests, septic tanks, swimming pools, termites and carpenter ants, and trees.

Dealing with Buyer’s Remorse

Most people who buy homes experience uncertainty after buying a home. Here are some basic steps to calm your nerves.

Find and Compare Your Wants and Needs List. During the process of looking and finally purchasing a home, you probably developed a wants and needs list. Get that list out again and ask yourself a few questions.

Be honest with yourself. Does this home meet your most important needs? What qualities made this home stand out from the others? Did you find many houses that met your needs or was this the only one? Could you realistically find a more suitable home if you could back out? What has changed since you decided on the house?

Buyer’s remorse often kicks in after we begin talking with others about the purchase of our new house. Perhaps you just spoke with a family member or friend who questioned your choice or the amount you paid for it. Don’t fret yet. Are they familiar with today’s market? Do they know your area well? Remember that parents often feel that nothing is good enough for their children.
Are you still looking at houses? If you’re settled on one, then stop looking. Remember that the grass is always greener on the other side. Do not put yourself through those mental battles. Remember that a certain amount of buyer’s remorse is normal. Unless you have discovered a major issue with the home you just bought, you will question your purchase. If you feel that you have a major issue, talk to your agent.

Tips to help your house sell

A realtor contact in Florida sent me this, and I thought it was timely and helpful:


Make Each Room in Your Home a Selling Point

On the average, homebuyers are expecting more out of the homes they’re purchasing. Between the home improvement shows like Trading Spaces and the various magazines that show you what your home could look like, people are not satisfied with the norm. Not only do they want rooms for each of their kids, a playroom, hobby rooms, an office, large laundry rooms, sufficient bathrooms, and a decked out kitchens, people want windows galore and open space.

So how do you deal with these demands as a seller? Well, you can do your share by taking a few steps towards them. But, be cautious. Everyone has different tastes so don’t do anything extreme. Let’s walk through your home to see how we can make a few improvements without empting your savings account.1. Curb AppealAs you know, first impressions are imperative. Even if your house is on the small side, there are a few things you can do to get your house in the best selling-style possible. For one, make sure that the house is shining with new paint.

Get professionals to at least give you advice on the landscaping, even if you can’t afford to have them do the job as well. Keep cars out of the driveway to give the house an open look and make sure all toys and yard tools are out of sight. Give the windows a good cleaning and liven up the front door with a new handle, a fresh coat of paint, and a seasonal wreath. 2. The Entryway in Your HomeThe entryway to your home needs to warmly invite homebuyers. Do not keep anything but a few basics in the entryway. If you have room, place a small console table in the entryway with a lamp on it and a picture hanging over it. An area rug may be a good idea, as it adds warmth and character. If you have an open corner, add a decent-sized plant in an attractive planter. 3. The Kitchen The kitchen is often the room that will either make or break the potential deal. The kitchen is often the centerpiece of homes these days. Families cook, entertain, eat, do homework, discuss bills, talk on the phone, and so much more in kitchens. Here are a few starting points to spice up your kitchen.

Remove all clutter from the countertops. With the exception of major appliances like a microwave and maybe a mixer, keep only a fragranced candle on the counter top. Hide the basket that keeps your bills, newspapers, keys, and flyers. Move the recycling bin somewhere inconspicuous.

Look closely at the walls? Do they look worn? If you think they look slightly roughed up, they are going to look even worse to the homebuyers. Throw on a new coat of paint. It’s an inexpensive and quick way to brighten and clean up the room.

You may also think about replacing the hardware, upgrading the old faucet, and lightening up the room with recessed down lights over the stove and sink areas. Add a new piece of art and treat your windows with contemporary curtains. 4. The Living and Family RoomsAs we talked about earlier, homebuyers want “the look” that is displayed in the magazines. Thus, one thing you can do is place your furniture in the same way a decorator would. Let me explain. If you have a small room, make sure that the furniture in that room is on the small side. And don’t try to fit too much in that room. You want each room to feel open and spacious.

Next, choose a focal point for the room: fireplace, TV, piece of art, computer. Arrange your furniture around that centerpiece. If you can, avoid putting your sofa against the wall. Also try to place your furniture pieces close enough together to create the warm, intimate feeling that you and homebuyers both desire. Keep only a few throw pillows and blankets out to accessorize. Clear off the coffee table and end tables with the exception of a decorative piece or a lamp.
If you have a small room, place mirrors in a strategic place to reflect light and the depth of the room to make the room feel brighter and larger. Try to accessorize the room with items that add height to the room, without width, such as a long, thin lamp and plants. This will help make the room feel more open.

Talk with your agent for helpful hint that are specific for your home. Try not to take things personally. Remember, the agent has been in the selling business, not the decorating business. They know the market.

SCAMS to watch for!

Jury Duty scam

You get a call from someone claiming to be a jury coordinator. You protest that you never received a summons. The caller asks for your social security number and date of birth so he or she can verify the information and cancel the arrest warrant.

Give out the info? Bingo. Your identity just got stolen.

This scam is not the only one out there. There are dozens. If you think you've been approached or emailed or called by a scam artist, there's a handy little section of the FBI website, outlining the current crop of scams being perpetrated out there. It might be good to check it once in a while.

Check it out here.

Protect your privacy!

Most people don't know that everytime their credit is checked, the information provided to the credit bureaus can be, and usually is, sold ~ not only to other lenders, but to companies which buy and sell names and information.

Not only are the credit companies making money off your transaction with them, they're selling your good name to other companies. Ever wonder why you get so much junk mail and spamming emails after you make a credit purchase somewhere? (Cars, appliances, etc.) Your name and information is sold again and again, often to disreputable companies.

The good news is, you can make it STOP. The consumer credit reporting industry has an "opt out" program. You can call them at 1-888-567-8688

You can choose a 5 year or lifetime option (the lifetime option requires a signature). It takes at least 48 hours to process, so do it today!

.......and while we're at it, we should all complain to the FTC (or State Attorney General's Office) about this currently legal practice.

WESTERN DAYS!

Here's one of the lucky winners from our Western Days booth. Or wait, I think WE were the lucky ones. Isn't he the handsomest thing? Western Days was the combination of hokey and homespun and family fun and community involvement we all know and love ~ and it was a perfect weekend for Smith and Layne!

We gave away GORGEOUS American flags, tee shirts and mugs, some wonderful paintball passes, and about a gazillion little green fans.........like the one Nancy has in THIS gem of a photo. (a big Thanks to our terrific and hardworking friends at First American Title and Equity Title)

Seriously, who WOUDN'T need a fan sidled up to THAT hunk of woman(?) . . . . . man . . . . . . . . . whatever.

All in good fun, the "Posse" traveled around the event with guns blaring and lipstick at the ready. After last year, when he and a buddy were "caught" by the kissing bandits, Nancy's son and his friends were nowhere to be found this go-round. Amelia uses the excuse of being the team "shutterbug" to avoid compromising photos like this one.......

If you missed it, mark your calendar for next year. It's good clean fun.

We'll see you around town.

We knew it all along.......

Glimmers of optimism shine through mixed housing news

Home foreclosures 'manageable,' repayments possible, experts say

By Roger Showley
UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER
May 25, 2007

Problem mortgages will probably plague some recent home buyers for the rest of the year, but the outlook for new buyers appears relatively promising, with sellers likely to drop prices into 2008, according to experts at yesterday's Sullivan Group Real Estate Advisors quarterly conference.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

DataQuick Information Systems expects to report today that the six-county Southern California region saw defaults rise nearly 159 percent last month to more than 9,200, compared with 3,562 in April 2006, and that foreclosures skyrocketed from 311 to more than 2,800 over the same period. San Diego's defaults rose from 554 to 1,346, and foreclosures increased from 85 to 525, April to April.

But San Diego was painted as an area less vulnerable to any further major downturns, contingent on the health of the general economy. Reasons include relatively few unsold, newly built homes and new projects; steady if not improving job growth; and an earlier end to the housing boom than other markets where sales and prices are now in decline.

The most recent sales figures for San Diego showed a 13.5 percent year-over-year drop in April, compared with more than 30 percent year-over-year declines reported by DataQuick last fall.

Read the whole thing......

Latest planning group meeting minutes

It's a good thing to keep an eye on what's new, what's being planned, and maybe we can figure out what needs to be done.

http://www.valleycenter.com/VCCPGagenda.pdf

Valley Center Vision has had several meetings in the last few weeks. A list of needed community projects has been developed and project teams have been identified. VCV is actively fundraising measures to raise money for the VCPRD and is also trying to raise money for community projects that fall outside the scope of the VCPRD charter.

The PG has numerous active efforts at this time. We have developments in the SV, NV, and Cole Grade Road. We will also be developing community plans later this year as part of the GP2020 planning process. These efforts will all have powerful influence on future development. For these reasons, we need to encourage friends, neighbors, and other residents to step up and get involved with these SC. We need volunteers who have administrative skills, design skills, and communications skills. We should encourage friends and acquaintances to consider how to get involved.

Land Use & Project Review
a. TPM 21035—Sage Meadow TPM (Laventure): one parcel into two lots; Owner: David and Sherry Green; site: 13510 Sage Meadow Lane.
b. TM5451 Paradise Mountain (Armstrong); Major Subdivision (250 acres-31 lots); Paradise Mtn. Road; Owner Paradise Mtn. Ranch; App: Paradise Mtn Estates.
c. P03-104, 14324 Calle de Vista (Wallace); off Valley Center Rd, discretionary project application for Cingular Wireless cell site, owner David Robertson, Agent Plancom Inc.
d. TPM21004rpl2 (Schwartz); McNally Rd west of Oak Glen, 78.3 acres into four 4 acre parcels plus 66 acre remainder, owner: Fallbrook Development Co., engineer: landmark Consulting, replacement map.
e. ZAP07-006 (Huntington), McNally Rd east of Nicole’s Vista Minor use permit for “L” zoning (Animal designator) for commercial specialty animal raising.
f. TPM21002RPL1 – 29610 Mac Tan Road (Coulombe) 5 acres into 2 lots; Owner: Kevin & Sharon Tam, VCCPG approved 8/14/06, update on DPLU progress.

Announcements and Items of Interest to the VCCPG
a. Annual Training
b. Valley Center EEMP Grant Implementation Team (Montgomery).
c. Spanish Trails project is active and it may be redesigned. The PG needs to establish a SC to work with the developer on this project for a period of several months. This project involves a large geographic area and it will have a significant impact on VC.

Thinking of offering seller financing?

Great advice from Realty Times' Benny L. Kass

Creative financing has returned to the real estate market. Sellers are beginning to recognize that it is now a "buyer's market," and in order to make a sale must provide attractive benefits to attract and entice buyers into presenting a purchase contract.

Some sellers are offering free plasma television sets; others are providing rental cars with one or two years free rent. And some sellers are considering financial incentives -- one of which is a "take-back" second trust.

When you borrow money to buy a house, in order to insure that the lender will ultimately get paid, the buyer/borrower signs a promissory note and a deed of trust.

The promissory note is a legal document which says: "I, the borrower, promise to pay the lender XX dollars, due and payable in Y number of years. I will pay this money in equal monthly installments of ZZ, at an interest rate of AA percent per year."

If the borrower does not pay, the lender can file suit in the appropriate court and get a judgment against that person. Then, the lender has to determine what assets the borrower has, find out where they are, and then attempt to attach those assets based on the Court ordered judgment.

This can be a cumbersome process. And if the borrower has no money, it will be a futile -- and expensive -- effort. I often tell my clients that "there is no cash register at the back of the courthouse; collecting on a judgment may not be successful."
Accordingly, to further protect the lender's investment, the borrower also signs a deed of trust. This is a legal document whereby the homeowner signs a document which technically
(and in some states legally) transfers the borrower's house to a trustee who has been selected by the lender. This document is recorded among the land records where the property is located, so as to put the entire world on notice that title to the house is subject to that deed of trust.

If the buyer makes the monthly payments and is not otherwise in default, when the loan is paid off in full, the deed of trust is released from land records. However, if the buyer is delinquent, the trustee has the authority to sell the house at an auction foreclosure sale. Every state has different rules and procedures about how foreclosures are to take place, and you should consult your local attorney for more details.

In legal terms, a deed of trust is a grant from the home owner to the trustee, giving him/her the "power" to sell the house. Some states still use mortgages, which in effect provides a lender with the same security as does the trust deed. The basic difference, however, between a deed of trust and a mortgage is that where there is a mortgage, the lender will have to go to court to force a sale. Thus, most lenders prefer to use deeds of trust, since the foreclosure process is easier, less expensive and faster.

You are prepared to offer a potential buyer a second deed of trust in the amount of $35,000. I call this a "second trust" because your buyer will get a first trust from a commercial lender. In simple terms, your trust document will be recorded on the land records after the first trust, and will thus be in second place position.

There are several advantages to this approach: you will assist
the buyer in going to settlement because he/she will not have to come up with all that additional cash; you can set your interest rate lower than the buyer can get on the open market; you can defer (not avoid) a portion of any capital gains tax which you might otherwise have to pay if the property sold for all cash. You should discuss the tax benefits with your financial advisors.
However, there is also one important negative factor to consider. If the first trust goes into default, and that lender forecloses on the property, your second trust will be wiped out. The first trust lender must advise you of the pending foreclosure sale, but because that lender is in first place position, your security in the house is not protected. You can still sue the borrower based on the promissory note that was signed, but as discussed above, that may be a useless effort if the borrower has no money.

The bottom line: taking back a second trust is certainly one way of attracting potential buyers, but there are risks. There is absolutely no guarantee that your $35,000 will be completely protected.

If you do not have a mortgage presently on your house, or if there is a small outstanding balance which you can pay off, you may want to consider taking back a first trust in an amount of no more than 90 percent of the purchase price -- i.e the buyer must give you at least 10 percent down. That is even a more attractive incentive for potential buyers.

POSTAGE!

Just a reminder that the cost a first class stamp is going up to .41 cents ~ and the post office will now be charging by size and shape of the envelope. There is a fee for added weight as always but the cost per ounce will be less than switching to a larger envelope. If you are mailing a large envelope where the contents could be folded and fit in a regular business size envelope, you could save yourself as much as .39cents to mail the same piece.

You can go to usps.com for more information regarding the new pricing scales.

........just our 2 cents' worth.

May is Deck Safety Month!

May is Deck Safety Month, according to the North American Deck and Railing Association who along with the Simpson StrongTie company, first rolled out the red carpet for deck safety in May 2006 to make sure you make sure you or you loved ones don't get, well, decked by your deck.

More than 92 million homes in the United States have a porch, deck, balcony or patio, and experts say that an astonishing 20 million of them are in need of immediate replacement or repair.

The association says between August 2004 and December 2005, the U.S. news media reported 225 injuries and one fatality from deck collapses. Many more deck failures -- with and without injuries -- went unreported.

Simpson, which offers an interactive, online "Critical Deck Connections" and "What You Need To Know To Make Your Deck Strong And Safe", reports that the average life expectancy of a deck is 10 to 15 years and requires frequent inspection.

You or a qualified inspector should give your deck the once over to evaluate its safety and construction and to be certain it is structurally sound and properly maintained.

The association offers a"Manual For The Inspection Of Residential Wood Decks And Balconies" and a "Check Your Deck Consumer Checklist" and says pay special attention to warning signs your deck may be about to give way.

The signs include:

Rotted, split or decaying wood. Typically found where the deck attaches to the home, in support posts and joists under the deck, in deck boards, railings and stairs. Rotted, split or decaying wood weakens the structure and raises the possibility of collapse. Keep in mind, wood naturally cracks with age, but a deck with cracks throughout or large cracks in portions indicates major weakness.

Missing, loose or corroded fasteners and connections. Decks should have a redundant system of nails, screws, connectors, anchors and fasteners supporting the structure. Look for loose and missing parts, rust, a shaky handrail and stairs that sway or sag.

Generally, a state licensed or trade group certified home inspector can give your deck a once over and while on the job can inspect your whole home for other safety concerns, says the association.

However for elaborate deck systems a structural engineer may be warranted. Repairs and maintenance are a job for a professionally licensed, insured and bonded deck builder or other like-licensed contractor experienced in the work.

Feds issue "beige book" with bland forecast

Beige Book: Lackluster Housing Market
"Flat," "soft," "tight," and "weak" were words frequently used to describe residential housing markets in the 12 Federal Reserve banking districts.

Monday, April 30, 2007
By Broderick Perkins, Realty Times

Adding commentary to recent statistical evidence about the nation's housing market, the Federal Reserve's newest district-by-district economic report says the housing market remains waylaid by over-supply, weak home sales, flat prices and few home starts.

While homes in the moderate price range were selling in a few select markets, bleak conditions were widespread through the 12 Federal Reserve bank districts, revealing a national market gaining more uniformity and less local flavor every day, according to the third "Beige Book" report this year.

Rather than crunching numbers, the eight-times-a-year Federal Reserve report gathers anecdotal commentary on a variety of economic indictors, from agriculture, consumer spending and energy, to employment, major industry sectors' performance and wages.

Comments are solicited from representatives of the reserve's dozen district branch banks as well as from economists, market experts and other sources in those districts.

The latest report is based on pre-April 16 commentary which paints the same pale picture drawn in this year's two previous Beige Book reports -- the housing market is in a rut.

"Residential real estate activity continued to weaken in many districts. Many districts saw a decrease in homebuilding," according to the report's summary.

We like the twelfth district's forecast better, though.........

San Francisco, Twelfth District

In most areas, sales for new and existing homes continued to fall as average time on the market rose. Price appreciation remained in many areas, but at a much slower pace than last year.

Developers, however, were not unloading undeveloped land suggesting they expect market snores to be limited.

This is the one district where numerous contacts noted areas of strong stabilization in the pace of home sales and price appreciation as well as improvements in the level of multifamily constructions.

One banking contact reported that residential mortgage lenders have been discounting assessed home values when making new mortgage loans.

May in the garden

May Is The Time To...

1. Plant irises, canned roses, tropicals and tuberoses.
2. Transplant potted bulbs into the ground.
3. Replace cool-season bedding flowers with summer-season flowers.
4. Plant zinnias and other heat loving flowers.
5. Plant morning glories.
6. Plant warm-season lawns.
7. Continue to plant summer vegetables.
8. Replace parsley if you haven’t already done so.
9. Plant a giant pumpkin for Halloween.
10. Purchase, plant, and transplant succulents, including cacti and euphorbias.
11. Stop pinching fuchsias if you did not do so last month.
12. Thin out fruit on deciduous fruit trees.
13. Pinch dahlias back when the plant has three sets of leaves; tie the plant up as it grows.
14. Continue to pick and deadhead roses.
15. Divide and repot cymbidiums that have outgrown their containers.
16. Cut off bloom spikes from cymbidiums after flowers fade.
17. Prune camellias if you have not already done so.
18. Clean and prune azaleas.
19. Divide and mount staghorn ferns.
20. Prune winter- and spring-flowering vines, shrubs, trees and ground covers after they finish blooming.
21. Continue to tie up and sucker tomatoes.
22. Remove berries (seed pods) from fuchsias after flowers fall.
23. Pinch back petunias when you plant them.
24. Continue to prune and train espaliers.
25. Feed citrus trees, avocado trees.
26. Feed fuchsias, azaleas, tuberous begonias, water lilies.
27. Feed roses, ferns, flower beds, camellias after they bloom.
28. Fertilize lawns.
29. Side-dress vegetable rows with fertilizer.
30. Feed all container-grown succulents with a well-diluted complete liquid fertilizer.
31. Fertilize peppers when flowers first show.
32. As the weather becomes drier water all garden plants regularly.
33. Taper off watering those California native plants that do not accept summer water.
34. Water roses, cymbidiums, and vegetables.
35. Do not water succulents.
36. Control rose pests and diseases.
37. Spray junipers and Italian cypress for juniper moths.
38. Control mildew.
39. Control pests on vegetables.
40. Control weeds among permanent plants by mulching or cultivating.
41. Control weeds among vegetables and flowers by hand-pulling.
42. Keep bamboo from running into your neighbor’s garden.
43. Harvest vegetables regularly.

Thank you to Grangettos for this great information. They're a fantastic local resource for amateur and "professional" gardeners alike.

Valley Center Municipal Water District info.

Rain is a rare beast these days, we thought you'd like some information on the local water district

Here's the main link to the Valley Center Water District

Proposed South Village Area Wastewater Expansion Project

Be Water Wise! Go to our Conservation page for links to online California Friendly gardening classes.

Beat the Peak! Water Conservation Urged During the Hot Summer Months


Office Location and Hours
Board of Directors and Meetings
Fact Sheet History
Departments and Staff Contacts - Employment Opportunities
Water/Wastewater Internship Opportunities
Water Service Customer Service
- 2005 Water Quality Report
Wastewater Service - South Village W.R.F Expansion

Links about Water, the Valley Center community, and Agriculture
Here are a number of links to pages about:

Water in Southern California
Valley Center community activities
Agriculture

Pondering a pool?

Thinking of putting in a pool?

Pool Designs Focus on Family and Functionality

by Phoebe Chongchua

Less is more when it comes to pools, at least when you're referring to depth. Industry experts say a trend in pool construction is leaning to smaller and shallower pools.

"People are looking more for a family-friendly pool, a sports pool -- where they go from three and a half feet to five and a half feet deep," says Josh Lawson, General Manager of San Diego Pools.

This trend is also helping to keep temperatures stable throughout the entire pool. "With a deeper pool that bottom couple of feet is always a lot cooler than the upper feet depending on circulation," says Lawson.

Pool design is very personal and often influenced by the area and regulations -- for instance, in Hawthorne, Australia, a 70-thousand-dollar award-winning pool abuts the ground-level floor of a residential home so that people can sit inside and see others swimming in the pool. The construction of that pool was completed after a major legal battle in Supreme Court ended because of imposed water restrictions in the country. Due to area restrictions on where a pool can be placed on a property, that concept may not be as popular in other parts of the world.

read the whole thing

Interesting perspective.......

Second Guessing Second Homes

Second home sales and prices in the investment sector plunge as speculators bail and leave the market weak, but attractive to those who still have discretionary cash.

Tuesday, May 01, 2007
By Broderick Perkins, Realty Times

It may be a better time to buy a second home than it is to buy a primary residence. The nation's second home market is repelling investors in droves and the blow is so crushing to the second home market, the nation's primary housing market downturn pales by comparison.

Second home sales plummeted last year, falling 18.56 percent to 2.72 million, compared to 3.34 million in 2005, according to the National Association of Realtors' annual "Investment and Vacation Home Buyers Survey".

Primary home sales fell only 4.1 percent to 4.82 million in 2006 from 5.02 million in 2005.

The second home sales plunge took a chunk of market share along for the fall. Second homes now represent 36 percent of all homes sold in 2006, down from 40 percent in 2005.

read the whole thing

GREAT info for families

The Web's Best Bookmark for Data on the Family

A product of the Heritage Foundation, familyfacts.org is an ideal resource of credible data, research, and talking points for policymakers, journalists, scholars, and the general public. Developed by Heritage’s Domestic Policy Studies department, familyfacts.org catalogs social science findings on the family, society, and religion culled from peer-reviewed journals, books, and government surveys. With over 2500 findings available, this site’s search engine provides easy access to family-related information spanning a variety of topics. You can look for findings by categories or create your own search based on a topic, keyword, or author. Categories include: Children & Teens, Crime & Violence, Education, Family, Health & sexuality, Marriage & Divorce, Parenting, Pregnancy, and Religion & Culture.

To view samples of findings by category, check out the featured examples below.
Findings by Category:

Children & TeensFrequent family dinners were associated with lower rates of teen smoking, drinking, and drug use… (more)

Crime & ViolenceFor girls, but not for boys, parent and child religiosity reduced the likelihood of delinquency… (more)

EducationThe most successful children (as measured by their achievement test scores and teachers' ratings) had mothers who struck a balance between being warm and supportive and setting and enforcing clear limits on their children's behavior… (more)

FamilyCompared with peers who did not cohabit before marriage, spouses who had cohabited were more likely to feel that they might separate, and the longer they had cohabited the greater the likelihood that they would perceive a risk of separation... (more)

Health & SexualityBoys who frequently used marijuana or participated in binge drinking were more than four times more likely to be depressed than peers who did not… (more)

Marriage & DivorceCompared with peers who were raised in a home with married parents, males whose parents never married were significantly less likely to marry and were more likely to cheat and walk out on their romantic partners… (more)

ParentingAdolescents prefer their parents as a source of sex education…(more)

PregnancyNeither socioeconomic standing nor educational attainment was related to the risk of miscarriage in the first trimester…(more)

Religion & CultureCompared with peers who seldom or never attended a house of worship, individuals who attended weekly or more often were 21 percentage points more likely to volunteer for causes that were completely secular (60% vs. 29%)...(more)

You don't have to be a social science expert to find the data you need. If you can use the internet, you can use familyfacts.org.

By the way, a great search engine is http://www.dogpile.com ~ It uses Google and Lycos and Ask and all the other search engines in one big "dogpile". We've found stuff with Dogpile we couldn't find anyplace else.

Blood Drive Success!!!!

We're ecstatic to report that our very first (of many!) sponsored Valley Center Blood Drive was a success! We had a goal of 30 pints, and .........drum roll...............



We HIT OUR GOAL!



Thank you to all our donors and sponsors, and we'll do it again to support this worthy cause!

Here's our dedicated group of nurses, one of our co-sponsors, Rick Restivo, and the two of us - (twice, if you count the picture on our banner!)

How important are the schools?

Of all the local neighborhood amenities that can influence a buyer's decision to purchase a home, proximity to good quality schools is one of the most influential. According to The National Association of REALTORS® Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, schools were listed as a deciding factor for 19% of home buyers. This Field Guide includes articles and studies on the importance of schools for home buyers and how schools impact local property values

School Quality & the Homebuying Decision

High performance schools: Green/sustainable school buildings create healthier students, happier parents, and more attractive Smart Growth neighborhoods, (On Common Ground, Winter 2005).

Housing and school choice, (Affordable Housing Bulletin (King County, WA), Dec. 2002).

The perceived quality of public schools, (East Carolina University - Department of Economics, July 2000).

Which measures of school quality does the housing market value?, (Journal of Real Estate Research, Nov./Dec. 1999).

Do better schools matter? Parental valuation of elementary education, (The Quarterly Journal of Economics, May 1999).

School choice through relocation: Evidence from the Washington, D.C. area, (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Working Paper Series WP-99-7, Mar. 1999).

Neighborhood school characteristics: What signals quality to homebuyers?, ( Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review, 4th Quarter 1996).


Impacts of Schools on Property Values

Do good schools or good neighbors raise property values?, (UCLA / Dartmouth College, Apr. 2004).

School quality and property values in Greenville, South Carolina, (Clemson University, Apr. 2003).

School accountability ratings and housing values, (National Bureau of Economic Research, Jan. 2003).

Schools and housing markets: An examination of school segregation and performance in Connecticut, (University of Connecticut, Oct. 2002).

Why do households without children support local public schools? Linking house price capitalization to school spending, (University of Pennsylvania - The Wharton School, June 2002).

What's in a grade? School report cards and house prices, (University of Florida - Department of Economics, May 2002).

School performance and housing values: Using non-contiguous district and incorporation boundaries to identify school effects, (National Tax Journal, June 2001).

The capitalization of school quality: Evidence from San Diego County, (San Diego State University - Department of Economics, Spring 2001).

School finance reform and housing values: Evidence from the Los Angeles Metropolitan Area, (San Diego State University - Department of Economics, Jan. 2000).

Perception of public school quality and it's effects on housing prices: Evidence from Pitt County, North Carolina, (East Carolina University - Department of Economics, Dec. 1999).

House prices and the quality of public schools: What are we buying?, (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Review, Sept./Oct. 1998).

The impact of school characteristics on house prices: Chicago 1987-1991, (Tufts University - Department of Economics, Aug. 1997).

How much more is a good school district worth?, (National Tax Journal, June 1997).

Magnet schools and the differential impact of school quality on residential property values, (Journal of Real Estate Research, Summer 1990).

Major Mortgage Players Pledge Foreclosure Relief; May Alleviate Fallout

Good news on the lending front! Maybe a rocky road, but a road nonetheless.

Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae have joined the growing ranks of mortgage companies promising to devise ways to help foreclosure-bound subprime homeowners out of their current unaffordable loans. Freddie pledges $20 billion in new relief programs. Combined efforts could reduce the number of foreclosed houses glutting some local markets. Ken Harney reports.

Monday, April 23, 2007
By Kenneth R. Harney, Realty Times
With major mortgage market players pledging new relief plans for financially-strapped subprime homeowners, the foreclosure fallout this year and next may not be as severe as some real estate analysts had forecast.
Chief economists from the National Association of Home Builders and Freddie Mac have cited a potential rise in foreclosed homes as a drag on home sales in the coming months. Freddie Mac chief economist, Frank Nothaft, said in a recent commentary that unknown numbers of "foreclosures may dump new supplies of (unsold houses) onto already-depressed local markets, intensifying the downward price pressure in those areas."
But last week on Capitol Hill and elsewhere, some of the biggest institutions in American home real estate promised new programs to stem the subprime foreclosure tide. Freddie Mac told a Senate foreclosure-avoidance summit last Wednesday that it planned to devote $20 billion to help refinance subprime buyers facing unaffordable payment adjustments or foreclosure into fixed rate conventional loans.
Fannie Mae earlier had announced a new refinancing program of yet-undetermined dollar volume to reach out to ailing subprime borrowers with adjustable rates on the rise. The congressionally-chartered company said that as many as 1.5 million homeowners facing payment shocks may be eligible for Fannie refis into more favorable loans.
Washington Mutual announced last week that it would refinance up to $2 billion worth of subprime adjustables into 30-year fixed rate loans, and cut one half percentage point off its regular fixed rates to make the deals more affordable. Citigroup also announced a subprime refi relief program, and the Federal Housing Administration told Congress it would do whatever possible to accommodate distressed subprime homeowners in its regular insured fixed-rate programs. FHA's rates typically are 3 percentage points or more lower than subprime rates.
At the same time, FHA commissioner Brian Montgomery told a House Financial Services committee hearing that his agency needs Congress to approve "modernization" legislation before it can most effectively help out subprime borrowers. Among the key changes that would give the agency broader clout, he said, are higher loan limits in high cost areas such as California and the Northeast, where FHA currently funds few mortgages because of statutory restrictions.
Fannie's and Freddie's announcements drew the praise of key housing legislators, including House Financial Services chairman Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass), who said their ability and willingness to take on such programs fulfilled part of their public purpose.
Senate banking committee chairman Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Del) held a federal-private "summit" Wednesday bringing together top federal regulators and private mortgage industry leaders. Dodd said the strong interest and commitments from the private sector to assist subprime borrowers makes a major federal "bailout" effort unnecessary. He specifically ruled out a controversial proposal by his committee colleague, Sen. Charles Schumer (D-NY) which would involve distributing "hundreds of millions of dollars" of federal aid to nonprofit and community-based housing counseling organizations around the country for use in assisting foreclosure-endangered subprime borrowers.
"I'm not interested," said Dodd.

link

Sign up to help kids!

What a greaty idea! We can't believe we haven't heard of it before now! There's a way to get Amber alerts sent to your cell phone as a FREE text message. The way it works is, whenever an Amber alert is issued in any of the zip codes you sign up to recieve, you'll get a text message. That way, vital information is distributed quickly, and hopefully, more monsters are taken off the streets.

GREAT idea.

How can consumers receive Wireless AMBER Alerts?

Wireless subscribers, whose wireless devices are capable of receiving text messages, may opt in to receive Wireless AMBER Alerts by registering at www.wirelessamberalerts.org or by visiting their wireless carrier's website.

When they opt in, consumers need to provide their wireless phone numbers, including area code, and designate up to five ZIP codes for which they want to receive Wireless AMBER Alerts.

IMPORTANT: Information you provide will be used solely for the Wireless AMBER Alerts initiative and will not be shared with additional parties.

Interested in Interest Rates?

Friday, April 06, 2007

McLEAN, VA -- Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) in which the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.17 percent with an average 0.4 point for the week ending April 5, 2007, up slightly from last week when it averaged 6.16 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.43 percent.
The 15-year FRM this week averaged 5.87 percent with an average 0.5 point, up slightly from last week when it averaged 5.86 percent. A year ago, the 15-year FRM averaged 6.10 percent.
Five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) averaged 5.92 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, up from last week when it averaged 5.88 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 6.11 percent.

One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs averaged 5.44 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, up slightly from last week when it averaged 5.43 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 5.57 percent.

"Mortgage rates have remained within a narrow band of 0.1 percentage points over every week in March," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. "This relative stability is due to mixed economic data releases as to how strong the economy is and whether future inflation will recede. One bright spot this week came from an unexpected increase in pending home sales for February, which suggests the housing market is still healthy."

"Looking forward, the upcoming March employment report and producer price index should offer further insight into the current state of the economy and give us an idea where interest rates are headed in the future."

Great ideas for homeowners

Plants aren't the only "green" things for Spring.....

NAHB Remodelers offer a Top 8 list for home owners who want to remodel green.

o Install maximum insulation in the area to be remodeled.
o Install high-efficiency windows instead of those that just meet the energy code.
o Seal all exterior penetrations in the area being remodeled.
o Purchase only Energy Star&Reg; rated appliances.
o Install only low-flow water fixtures.
o Upgrade to an Energy Star® rated water heater, or better yet a tankless water heater.
o Purchase the highest efficiency HVAC system you can afford.
o Make sure the home improvement is really green.

Resources include:
U.S. Green Building Council.
National Association of Home Builders.
Build It Green.
National Association of Remodeling Industry.
Publications include:
"Hiring and Working With Green Building Professionals" by Practica Consulting an Austin, TX-based green building consultant.
Consumers Union's Greener Choices.
Green Builder.

The market

Monday, April 09, 2007
By George W. Mantor, Realty Times

I keep reading about how the real estate market has changed. It's either "slowed, leveled-off, in a trough, retreated, plunged, plummeted, collapsed, corrected, contracted or returned to normal," depending upon who wrote the story.

More accurately, what has occurred is that the easy surplus of transactions over the last few years that fed the hopes and dreams, if not the mouths of a crush of new licensees, has abated.
The market hasn't changed; it has moved on. And it certainly hasn't returned to normal and never will. There isn't any such thing as a normal real estate market because each market is new and different and unique to now, and driven by not one event but several, some of which never repeat themselves.

Take for example the past five years. Was that a "buying frenzy" as bubble-heads assert? Or, was it a dynamic period resulting from the intersection of real estate favorable circumstances?
Often the events that shape the present take place well in advance of the visible result.

Everyone knows we just had a real estate boom, but few people seem to understand why. Some pundits have gone so far as to argue that the run-up in housing prices was the 21st century equivalent of Holland's infamous "Tulip-Mania."

What writers and academics don't seem to understand is that nobody wants to spend so much to buy a house. There is not only strong resistance to rising prices, but also the very real limit placed on that price by issues of affordability.

This is evidenced by the astonishing pent-up anger that is being expressed in real estate blogs. Fueled by impatience and wishful thinking, these advocates of the bubble theory have disparaged brokers, lenders, builders, and even the buyers themselves for locking them out of the market. People aren't livid about the cost of Cadillacs.

When you understand how we got here it's all perfectly reasonable and logical. Powerful forces are at work here. The circumstances that produced these forces are actually accelerating.
Return with me now to those thrilling days of yesteryear.

1978 -- the last "normal" year. Housing was generally affordable and interest rates were 9.5 percent. Between 1980 and 1981, sales plummeted as interest rates topped 16.5 percent. Nothing normal about that. Homes sat on the market for months and many were foreclosed.
Given those circumstances, many practitioners left the business as it seemed impossible to find a way around such an obstacle. Those of us who stuck it out invented a little wrinkle that was quickly maligned and eventually outlawed. "Creative financing" they called it back in the day. Risky, they said. An evil concoction that combined nose thumbing at the existing lender with sellers financing parts of their own transactions. Big banks just loved it. Not!

A loophole in California law allowed a buyer to "take subject to" existing financing without any approval from the lender. Just start making the payments. But the lower interest loans were on properties that had about doubled in value and that left an often sizable gap to be bridged. A higher interest second would be obtained for part of the financing and the seller would carry a reasonable third trust deed for the balance. We would wind up with a "blended" rate equivalent to 11 or 12 percent.

Soon it became apparent that the other advantage was that the buyer didn't need to put twenty percent down, overcoming yet another obstacle in California.

1983 -- the market began to improve dramatically as adjustable rate mortgages began to appear and interest rates began to decline. But for the next seven years, rates would not fall below 10 percent. Yet year after year more homes, both new and resale were being sold.

1988 -- new home sales hit a record 675,000 units while existing homes sales peaked at 3,512,000.

1991 -- new home sales bottomed out at 507,000 while resale closings fell to 3,186,000 units.

1993 -- locally this was not a time of optimism within the real estate industry. But as I looked into the future, I realized that the events preceding the next boom were already underway, and I published my analysis in April in which I predicted the coming boom.

1994 -- Boomers are in their peak family-forming years and should have been flooding the market. Instead the tail end of a brutal recession spooked many potential homebuyers into remaining renters. Pent up demand was building below the surface and as circumstances improved, one by one these over-ripe candidates came off the fence to join the competition for a shrinking inventory.

1997 -- Taxpayer Relief Act radically changed capital gains treatment on profits made on the sale of a personal residence. This began to impact the second home market as well as underscore the financial benefits of home ownership.

1999 -- the appreciation cycle began. Boomers were returning to the market to find limited choices and shortages began to develop in some areas. Boomers will continue to be first time buyers for another decade. Both generations X and Y have had an impact on the market over the last five years and that will continue to grow.

Builders responded, selling a record 885,000 homes in 1998 and 881,000 in 1999.

2000 -- "Dotcom" crash causes corresponding slow down in both new and resale housing.

2001 -- Demand of all types, deferred, pent-up, contemporary, investor refugees from the stock market and accelerated demand combine to overwhelm inventory in many communities.
During the prior decade, builders all but abandoned condominium construction because of rampant defect litigation. The result was that overtime, a smaller percentage of resales would occur at lower prices because that inventory was never built.

And while all of that was unfolding, an evolution in real estate finance was taking place which would make homeownership possible for more people. Today there is a loan for anyone who is responsible with money and has a decent job. That alone is worthy of a moment of pause.
I know that some of you are prone to thinking that many of these new loan types are dangerous to borrowers and, frankly, I think that's nonsense.

I'm from the old school. Give a man a chance, even a desperately slim chance, and see if he can make it. Most will find a way. The idea of a starter loan or a temporary loan is a solid one. The problem is that financing is an area where the industry has done a poor job of educating the consumer.

Factor in historically low interest rates and the explosion of attention that has surrounded the boom and it is easy to explain the events of the last few years.

Along the way real estate development has become more expensive as easy to develop land has disappeared and what remains often has significant challenges.

Material costs have increased, infrastructure costs have increased, labor costs have increased, and the bottom line is that, in many markets, builders are abandoning plans because the consumer cannot afford what it costs to build.

And if they cannot build them for less, the gains of most real estate owners are well protected. These are important talking points to share with everyone you meet.

The economy is solid if not spectacular when compared to historical norms.

The wild card for the next few months will be the number of unoccupied homes in some regions. Will that result in significant declines in value? My bet is that it won't go deep and it won't last long.

Is it really SPRING?

It's so nice to feel the warmth and see the flowers of Spring! We hope you are enjoying the weather and the sights around Valley Center's gardens.

We all could use a few more "April showers", though it is certainly nice to get a jump on the "May flowers", isn't it?

Spring Garden Checklist

The spring season starts early in Southern California, but that doesn't mean that local gardeners are any less busy than gardeners from other regions. Warmer springtime temperatures not only awaken new life in dormant plants, but also ambitious plans for eager gardeners. Although most folks are anxious to get new plants in the ground, it's always a good idea to take care of basic garden maintenance first. If gardeners have not cleaned garden debris and added soil amendments in the autumn months, early spring is a good time to do so. Since winter rains may have carried nutrients below the reach of the root zone, now is also a good time to fertilize lawns, shrubs, trees and planting beds. Such care will result in a magnificent display in later months.

Other spring reminders include:

Plant canned roses now to enjoy blooms during the summer months.
Fertilize established roses.
Buy and plant summer bulbs, such as callas, cannas, dahlias, and gladiolus.
Replace winter-spring annuals with summer annuals, including asters, coleus, impatiens, lobelia, marigolds, petunias, and zinnias.
Purchase and plant perennials to provide structure to the garden.
Start seeds or buy plants for the warm-season vegetable garden. (tomatoes!)

Happy gardening!